More than a dozen pending projects have been unleased, which could double U.S. export capacity by 2028, according to one estimate. Such an investment flood could lower prices.

First, the good news. As the chart below shows, gas prices in continental Europe are nothing like as high or volatile as they were in 2022. The wholesale price on Monday of around €46 per megawatt hour is more than double the pre-2022 price, but also way down on the crisis costs soon after Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

Americans have enjoyed some of the lowest gas prices in years this winter, but can that last with tariffs on energy imports now in effect? The national average for gasoline has stayed below $3.20 for months,